M&E in Complexity: Presenting a methodology for making credible claims

Written by
Jannik Kaiser
Erinda Panen Godesberg
on
December 9, 2025
Impact

Join the launch event on February 4th (3-4.30pm CET) to learn more: https://eveeno.com/credible-claims-narratives-impact-garden.

The Measurement Gap 

Whether you are a program officer at a UN agency, a trust-based philanthropist, or a network weaver, you likely face the same fundamental tension. You are working to solve complex, non-linear problems. Yet, the tools available to measure that work - logframes, linear theories of change, and standard KPIs - are often rigid and extractive.

We try to fit living ecosystems into boxes. We struggle to capture the "invisible" value of trust, connection, and agency, risking the oversight of structural inequities. The result is a measurement gap that shows up differently for everyone:

  • For Multilaterals & Aid Organizations: It’s the tension between the political necessity of strict reporting and the on-the-ground reality of empowering local stakeholders. How do you satisfy the audit without undermining the agency of the people you serve?
  • For Foundations: It’s the struggle to practice trust-based philanthropy while still needing to know "did it work?" How do you move beyond transactional reporting without losing strategic oversight?
  • For Networks: It’s the challenge of proving that the "infrastructure"—the trust building and connection—is valuable in itself, not just overhead.

In all cases, we know our work is creating value, but we struggle to make a credible claim about that impact in a way that satisfies a board, a donor, or a public auditor.

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Bridging the Gap: A Methodology for Making Credible Claims in Complexity

At Unity Effect, we have spent the last few years wrestling with this challenge alongside partners like the ILO, Social Entrepreneurship Network Germany (SEND e.V.) or FLOCERT. 

The result is an integrated approach designed to bridge the gap between the rigor required for reporting and the reality of working in complexity towards systemic and equitable change. It brings together three distinct innovative elements:

  1. A New Paradigm: Regenerative Evaluation (shifting from extraction to reciprocity).
  2. A Visual Framework: The Impact Garden (a systemic Theory of Change).
  3. A Methodological Twist: Using Feedback Loops as leading indicators.

We then integrate these three components into our analytical methodology for making credible claims; weaving data into systemic narratives.

Here is a closer look at these three ingredients and how they come together in the analytical methodology.

1. The Paradigm: Regenerative Evaluation

First, we must shift how we approach inquiry. Regenerative Evaluation is evaluation in service of life. It moves us beyond the dynamic of extraction—mining data from "subjects"—toward a practice that enhances the vitality of the systems we engage with .

Regenerative Evaluation weaves together three essential strands of evaluation into a coherent practice for the polycrisis :

  • Systemic approaches: Moving beyond linear logic to honor emergence and interdependencies (e.g. Developmental Evaluation). 
  • Power-Conscious approaches: Centering equity and shifting power dynamics back to communities (e.g. Feminist and Equitable Evaluation), honoring lived experiences and Indigenous knowledge (Recognition Justice).
  • Planetary approaches: Placing ecological health and thriving at the center of how we define success.

In this paradigm, we do not measure to control the system; we measure to nourish it. We acknowledge that the act of asking questions leaves marks, and we design our inquiry to build capacity and strengthen relationships in the process.

2. The Framework: The Impact Garden

To navigate complexity, we need a map that reflects reality. The Impact Garden is a Visual Theory of Change framework. Unlike linear logic models that imply a straight line from Input → Output, the Impact Garden maps the ecosystem of change.

It visualizes the "invisible" conditions of success—the Soil (Own & Partner Resources, including Indigenous rights recognition and community social capital) and the Garden Bed (Interventions & Activities)—alongside the visible Fruit (Direct Outcomes) and Seeds & Spores (Systemic Impact). It formally integrates External Conditions (Weather) to map external forces, especially potential justice-related risks like discrimination or land tenure conflicts. This allows diverse stakeholders—from local communities to global funders—to see their contribution on a single, intuitive map, creating strategic alignment without oversimplification .

3. The Innovation: Feedback Loops as Leading Indicators

In complex systems, significant outcomes often emerge long after an intervention, creating a "measurement gap." If we only look for results, we miss the early signs of progress and potential power imbalances.

Our methodology moves beyond static indicators to measure Feedback Loops - the dynamic relationships between data points (e.g., how a successful training program builds capacities, which then become part of the system’s resources in the form of peer-coaches).

By tracking these connections, we identify the systemic health and capacity for non-discrimination of the project in real-time. These loops serve as leading indicators of systemic impact, allowing us to report on the resilience, equity and potential of a system long before the final impact is visible.  For example, the Trust Loop is essential for building the psychological safety required for marginalized and underrepresented voices to contribute freely.

4. The Analytic: Making Credible Claims

Finally, how do we turn these insights into evidence? One core challenge in complexity is synthesizing data without losing nuance. We achieve this through a rigorous analytical methodology. Regenerative Evaluation serves as the lens and the Impact Garden as the visual evaluation framework. 

We then bring together four steps leading up to credible claims:

  1. Measuring Contribution: We move beyond the need to prove sole attribution by identifying the specific, verifiable role our intervention played in a wider web of factors, rigorously exploring the interventions’s role as a catalyst for equitable access and agency.
  2. Benchmarking against Time, Space, and Standards: We contextualize results by comparing them against historical data (Time), similar initiatives or regions (Space), and established quality criteria (Standards), ensuring progress accounts for relevant human rights and equity standards..
  3. Establishing Feedback Loops as Leading Indicators: We track the dynamic flow of resources, activities and outcomes to assess the health of the system right now, rather than just waiting for lagging results, with an eye toward documenting shifts in power dynamics.
  4. Measuring Capacity Development: We assess the growth of inner and collective capacities (like resilience or agency) to determine if the system is becoming capable of sustaining the change itself, explicitly focusing on the agency of marginalized and underrepresented groups.

Following these steps enables one to clearly understand one's own contribution to sustained change and impact.

One Methodology, Three Lenses

While this methodology is universal, the value it unlocks is specific to your role. In our upcoming Methodology Briefs, we tailor this approach to three distinct contexts:

  • For Multilaterals & Aid Organizations: It provides a framework to report on complex programs without forcing them into linear boxes, ensuring accountability while preserving local ownership and addressing structural barriers towards equity.
  • For Foundations & Investors: It solves the "Portfolio Learning" puzzle, shifting focus from individual grant compliance to the collective vitality and strategic capacity of the portfolio, providing the rigorous evidence needed to meet global standards (e.g., OECD DAC) on gender and human rights by tracking how investments drive structural power shifts and institutionalize justice..
  • For Networks & Ecosystems: It makes the intangible work of connection visible, proving that the health of the network and the psychological safety required for diverse participation is the intervention.

Aligning with the Global Agenda 

The Impact Garden methodology equips organizations to move beyond box-ticking and rigorously demonstrate alignment with global mandates, including the SDGs, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and international Human Rights treaties. By operationalizing concepts like Recognition, Procedural, and Distributive Justice into measurable indicators, it transforms abstract commitments on gender equality and indigenous rights into verifiable evidence of systemic change.

An Invitation to the Launch 

We are currently finalizing these briefs for publication. Before we release them, we invite you to join us for a live launch event where we will unpack these three pillars and share real-world case studies of how they work in practice.

Join the launch event on February 4th (3-4.30pm CET) to learn more: https://eveeno.com/credible-claims-narratives-impact-garden.

Work with Us

Curious about how this methodology could support your work? Book a conversation with our team or send us a message.

About the author
Co-Founder & CEO. Lead of Regenerative Measurement & Evaluation, business development & partnerships. Facilitation of peer learning in organisations and impact evaluation processes. Working languages: English & German.
About the author
Expert on Biodiversity, Climate Change and Environment. Applying a justice- and gender-based lens, bridging the social and environmental dimensions. Passionate seeker of holistic solutions to 21st Century challenges. Working languages: English, German & Spanish
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